Euro lower after ECB stands pat, dollar climbs after data
The euro was lower on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady as was widely expected, while the dollar index advanced after U.S. data on the labor market and manufacturing.
The ECB left rates unchanged and gave no insight into its next move, arguing that domestic price pressures remain high and inflation will be above its target well into next year, leaving the market to decipher comments from President Christine Lagarde for clues on the central bank’s next move.
“Compared to the Fed, the ECB may have been the first to cut, but they won’t be the fastest. When the ECB cut last it was a cautious cut, now every meeting is going to be a live meeting where the data will dictate every move,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
“When the Fed cuts, it will be a confident cut where even a month or two of bad data won’t take them off their cutting path. It’s annoying that the Fed is waiting so long to cut, but ultimately it will make for a clearer path.”
The euro was down 0.33% at $1.0901, easing from a four-month high hit of $1.0947 in the prior session.
On the U.S. front, weekly initial jobless claims jumped by 20,000 to 243,000, above the 230,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters, although it is not considered to be a notable shift in the labor market due to seasonal factors.
In addition, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region expanded more than expected in July, boosted by a surge in new orders.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, gained 0.37% at 104.14 after touching a four-month low of 103.64 on Wednesday.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled for its next policy announcement at the end of July, with markets expecting only a slight chance for a cut of at least 25 basis points (bps), while almost completely pricing in a cut at its September meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Fed officials expected to speak on Thursday include Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly, Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan and Governor Michelle Bowman.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar gained 0.7% at 157.22, rebounding from a drop in the prior session that sparked speculation of intervention by Japan, with analysts attributing the weakness to comments from U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump about the dollar’s strength.
Sterling weakened 0.45% at $1.295 after British data showed wages grew at a slower pace, but was still strong enough to keep doubts about an upcoming rate cut from the Bank of England afloat.
